Obama losong his bearings
as Barack Obama underestimated John McCain?
His advisers would certainly say no, that they always assumed the presidential race would be close and hard fought. But it's not too much to believe that at Obama's Chicago headquarters and on his campaign plane, the team did not fully appreciate the Republican position.
It's fair to say they never anticipated that McCain would roll the dice in the way he did when selecting a vice presidential running mate. Who did? The Obama team's first reaction was curt and indifferent, an apparent sign of over-confidence inside the operation that was quickly submerged by the more modulated reactions from the candidate himself. But in its dismissive initial response, the Obama campaign was signaling its belief that McCain had taken a foolish risk.
Obama's pick of Joe Biden had revealed a campaign in play-safe mode. Even Evan Bayh probably wasn't as safe a choice for Obama as Biden, given stirrings in the blogosphere about his red-state centrism and Biden's combination of foreign policy stature and everyman persona. Picking Tim Kaine or Kathleen Sebelius would have been bolder and riskier. Picking Hillary Clinton would have been the ultimate gamble, a big-league running mate whose selection would have been a very loud statement about Obama.
So the vice presidential competition is one area where Obama miscalculated his rival's daring. The Sarah Palin choice may yet prove to be the mistake that many initially said it would be, but in the short run, McCain has achieved much more than even he might have expected -- more energy, more enthusiasm, more money, more attention.
The second area where Obama may have underestimated McCain is in the kind of campaign the Republicans would run. Democrats routinely talk about knowing that Republicans will throw everything at them in a general election, then they respond with some surprise when it happens.
McCain's new team, led by Steve Schmidt, is fearless in the face of criticism that they are running on phony issues, false charges and negative ads that don't tell the truth. The chorus of criticism this week has been deafening, from Obama, from Democrats, from the media. But it has done nothing to turn Team McCain in a different direction. Their combination of audacity in attack and playing the victim in defense has been breathtaking.
McCain's team is both unafraid and reckless, but they love the chaos they've touched off. There is nothing orderly about what they're doing, just a relentless barrage of statements, e-mails, conference calls, Internet ads, cable interviews and political chaff designed to batter Obama and feed the media's insatiable appetite for combat and conflict, the more outrageous the better.
Through all this, the Obama team has tried to keep its compass set straight. They've heard all this before, this hand-wringing and second-guessing inside the Democratic family. They heard it last September when the polls weren't moving. They heard it after losing New Hampshire. They heard it especially after losing the Ohio and Texas primaries. They heard loud and clear during the uproar over Rev. Jeremiah Wright. One thing is clear. They do not panic in Chicago.
But neither are they or Obama oblivious to what is happening. If they underestimated McCain, if they let down their guard after the long battle with Clinton, if they became complacent or distracted over the summer, particularly after the overseas trip, then the combination of Palinmania and the calendar now have refocused their attention. There is not that much time left to get the focus where they want it.
A year ago, faced with questions, doubts and criticisms, they responded in two ways. The first was to stick to basic principles, to reassert confidence in their overall plan and to do everything they could to make sure their tactical and ground operations were as smooth-running as possible.
The other was for Obama to step up. He is thoughtful and intelligent -- and running for president, especially in this election, is a constant process of learning and adapting and improving. Every stage of the campaign has presented different challenges. So, first, it's likely that Obama is having a serious conversation with himself about what to do and what to say.
There is a belief outside the Obama campaign that, while the Democratic nominee knows what he wants to say about McCain and the choice for voters, he has lost some of his edge on what he wants to say about himself and how he wants undecided voters to see him. That's part of the challenge for him now. Can he keep talking economics, economics, economics and still get back some of the aura of being the future-oriented candidate of hope and inspiration?
The campaign has shown that Obama is extraordinarily competitive. This is not an intellectual exercise for him. He is determined to win this election if it's at all possible. That competitive drive will necessarily bring some changes -- not wholesale changes, but adjustments that will reflect the circumstances in which he now finds himself.
What isn't possible now is to ignore or underestimate the caliber of the opposition. McCain's competitive drive is every bit as strong as Obama's but displays itself in different ways. McCain's is a combination of inner toughness and visceral derring-do. Palin has reinforced those instincts and his campaign is doing everything it can to keep the momentum going.
Obama has been at this now for 19 hard months. At times his focus has drifted but he has proven himself equal to all the challenges. McCain's challenge may prove no more difficult in the end than Clinton's. But right now it is more than Obama may have expected. Now it is his turn and the question is, is he ready?
Labels: barack obama, joe biden, john mccain, sarah plain
posted by Shona at
12:05 PM
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